Bitcoin dominance is likely topping out, Michaël van de Poppe argues, as Bitcoin gives way to strong moves from some top ten altcoins.
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Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $26,000 on Dec. 29 as fresh fallout from Ripple’s threatened U.S. lawsuit was felt throughout crypto markets.
Cryptocurrency market overview. Source: Coin360BTC price dips as Coinbase halts XRP trading
$27,000 support failed to hold overnight, sparking a retest of lower levels which now center on $26,000. At the weekend, Bitcoin hit all-time highs of $28,400 before swiftly reversing.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
The latest losses come as XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, hits $0.23 thanks to major U.S. exchange Coinbase opting to suspend trading from next month. The reason is a lawsuit from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which threatens to classify XRP as an unlicensed security and make trading it all but impossible.
“There is going to be a rangebound construction, after which 2021 will most likely break out again,” Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe summarized about Bitcoin’s short-term perspectives in a video update on Monday.
Analyst braced for altseason
Van de Poppe is eyeing altcoins as next in line to see major gains. XRP notwithstanding, the market is already showing signs of life, with Ether (ETH) climbing above $700 for the first time since May 2018 this week.
Another winner on Tuesday was Polkadot (DOT), now the seventh-largest token by market cap, which saw a 22.5% daily rise, capping weekly performance of nearly 34%.
For Van de Poppe, the next “impulse wave” on Bitcoin in 2021 should take the market to $40,000 or $50,000, but “until then, altcoins will most likely do well.”
Bitcoin dominance historical chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
He additionally pointed to a likely top in Bitcoin market cap dominance, which at almost 70% should soon give way to altcoin presence. December tends to see BTC dominance peaks, with 2017, the time of Bitcoin’s first attempt to crack $20,000, a notable comparison.
Price analysis 12/30: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, DOT, ADA, BNB, LINK, BSV
Bitcoin price continues to chase after $30,000 but continued rejections below the key level is negatively impacting altcoin prices.
On-chain data suggests that high-net-worth individuals continued to buy Bitcoin (BTC) after Christmas. Analysts at Santiment said that smaller traders sold about $647 million worth of Bitcoin and this sum may have been bought up by Bitcoin whales.
Data also signals that large investors have been buying and holding their purchases throughout 2020, without booking profits in an aggressive manner. According to Glassnode analysts, this has caused the number of Bitcoin in circulation to decline by about 1 million.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
That means, out of the total available supply, 14.5 million Bitcoin are considered illiquid. Glassnode analysts say that this leaves only 4.2 million Bitcoin in constant circulation that are available for trading..
This could further increase the imbalance in the demand and supply equation boosting Bitcoin’s price higher.
However, every bull market goes through periodic corrections and Bitcoin may also be due for one. Therefore, traders should weigh the risks before buying at the current levels.
Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find the altcoins that may join Bitcoin in the breakout.
Bitcoin had formed a gravestone Doji candlestick pattern on Dec. 27 but the bears could not pull the price down on Dec. 28. The bears again tried to start a correction on Dec. 29 but the hammer candlestick formation suggests strong buying on dips.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls have pushed the BTC/USD pair to a new all-time high at $28,587.67 today. This suggests that the uptrend has resumed. The next level to watch on the upside is the psychological barrier at $30,000.
Although the rising moving averages suggest an advantage to the bulls, the relative strength index (RSI) has risen deep into overbought territory, which suggests that a correction could be around the corner.
Overbought levels at the start of a rally is a sign of accumulation, but after a mature rally, an RSI above 80 suggests buying due to FOMO and this usually leads to a correction. Therefore, traders should remain cautious and protect their paper profits with a suitable stop-loss.
A break below $25,800 could signal the start of a deeper correction to the 20-day exponential moving average ($23,836) and then to the 50-day simple moving average ($20,077).
Ether (ETH) formed an inside day long-legged Doji candlestick pattern on Dec. 29. This suggests that the bears tried to pull the price down but the bulls absorbed all the selling and staged a strong recovery by the end of the day.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls are currently attempting to push the price above $750 but the Doji candlestick pattern suggests indecision among the bulls and the bears.
If this uncertainty resolves to the upside and the ETH/USD pair rises above $750, the uptrend could reach $800 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI near the overbought territory suggest that bulls are in control.
However, if the bulls fail to drive the price above $750, the pair could attract profit booking by the short-term traders. If the bears sink the price below $$680, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($645).
A strong rebound off the 20-day EMA will suggest that the sentiment remains bullish and traders are buying on dips. On the other hand, a break below the 20-day EMA may signal the start of a deeper correction.
XRP continues to be in a strong downtrend and every attempt to start a relief rally is facing aggressive selling by the bears. The altcoin dipped to $0.172536 on Dec. 29 but the long tail on the candlestick suggests that bulls are attempting to defend this level.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The relief rally could face stiff resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.358202. If the price turns down from this level, the bears will again try to resume the downtrend. A break below $0.172536 could result in a fall to $0.10.
However, if the bulls defend the $0.169 support, the XRP/USD pair could consolidate in a tight range for a few days before starting the next trending move.
The bulls have managed to keep Litecoin (LTC) above the $124.1278 support for the past few days but the failure to resume the uptrend suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
When the price fails to rise, it could attract selling by short-term traders and that may pull the price down to the 20-day EMA ($110).
If the LTC/USD pair rebounds off this support, the bulls will again try to resume the uptrend. If they succeed in driving the price above $140, the pair could rally to $160.
However, the RSI has formed a negative divergence, which suggests that the momentum is weakening. A break below the 20-day EMA could drag the price down to $95.40.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is struggling to rise above the $370 overhead resistance but the positive thing is that the price has not given up much ground. This suggests that traders are not closing their positions in a hurry.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 60 suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the bulls can push and sustain the price above $370, the BCH/USD pair may rise to $430 and then to $500.
This positive view will be negated if the pair drops below the 20-day EMA ($317). Such a move could keep the pair range-bound for a few more days.
Polkadot (DOT) soared above the $5.60 to $6.0857 overhead resistance zone on Dec. 28 and followed it up with another sharp up-move on Dec. 29 that carried the altcoin to $7.70, just above the $7.67 target objective mentioned in the previous analysis.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears are currently attempting to defend the $7.70 level but the long tail on today’s candlestick suggests aggressive buying by the bulls on intraday dips.
If the price does not drop below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $6.6428, the DOT/USD pair could resume the uptrend, with the next target at $10.
On the contrary, if the bears pull the price below $6.6428, a drop to $6.3163 and then to $5.9897 is possible. Such a move will suggest that the momentum has weakened and that could keep the pair range-bound for a few days.
Cardano (ADA) broke above the $0.175 to $0.1826315 overhead resistance zone on Dec. 29 but the bulls have not been able to sustain the breakout. The price has dipped back below $0.1826315 today.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, the upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that bulls are in control.
If the ADA/USD pair rebounds off the current levels, it will suggest that $0.175 has flipped to support. The bulls will then try to push the price above $0.1966315, which could result in a rally to $0.22 and then to $0.235.
This positive view will invalidate if the price dips and sustains below $0.175. Such a move could result in a drop to the 20-day EMA ($0.161).
Binance Coin (BNB) closed above the $35.69 overhead resistance on Dec. 28 and followed it up with another sharp up-move on Dec. 29 that pushed the price to a new all-time high at $39.99.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The rising moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that bulls have the upper hand.
The bears are currently attempting to stall the up-move near $40 but if the price does not dip below $35.69, it will increase the possibility of the resumption of the uptrend. If that happens, the BNB/USD pair could rise to $50.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price dips back below $35.69, a drop to the 20-day EMA ($33) is likely.
The bulls could not propel Chainlink (LINK) above the $13.28 overhead resistance on Dec. 27 and the altcoin turned down on Dec. 29. The bears are currently attempting to sink the price below the $11.29 support.
LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, the LINK/USD pair could drop to $10 and if this support also gives way, the decline may extend to $8. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($12.24) and the failure of the RSI to sustain above 50 suggests that bears have the upper hand.
This negative view will be invalidated if the pair rebounds off the current levels and rises above the $13.28 resistance. If that happens, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The pair could then rally to $16.39.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has been range-bound between $146 and $181 for the past few weeks. The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand.
BSV/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
In a well-defined range, traders buy the dips to the support and sell near the resistance. Thus, the BSV/USD pair may rebound off $146 and extend its stay inside the range for a few more days.
The longer the consolidation, the stronger will be the breakout from it. If the pair rises above the moving averages, the bulls will once again try to push the price above $181. If they succeed, a rally to $216 and then to $227 is possible.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bears sink the price below $146, the trend will shift in favor of the bears.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
Japan’s crypto market matured in 2020, but 2021 may see huge growth
Japan in 2021 may see crypto industry reorganization
In 2020, the Japanese crypto industry seems to have entered its maturation phase. With new crypto laws established in May, large exchanges have solidified their leading positions, while crypto startups and unregulated businesses have exited the market. However, it seems that a winner has not yet been declared. There are already more than 25 registered exchanges in the small nation with a population of over 100 million, but global crypto giants are just starting to enter the market. Some believe a significant industry reorganization is coming through buyouts of licensed exchanges. And with the current bull market expected to continue, we may see a further expansion of crypto companies in Japan in 2021.
One question that must be asked, though, is: Does the industry actually have to show maturity now? With just 12 years having passed since Bitcoin was created, the entire crypto and blockchain industry is still in a nascent stage. Can we, therefore, foresee future development and regulate the industry at all? Regulatory clarity may be an advantage, but leaving it vague for now — whether done intentionally or not — as can be seen in the United States and China may be the right move for innovation.
Revised crypto laws
Japanese legislators amended the nation’s crypto regulations, the Payment Services Act and the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, on May 1. The new rules seek to address the vulnerabilities exposed by the hacking of exchanges Coincheck and Zaif in 2018 and BITPoint in 2019. Money laundering is another concern for regulators.
While the new regulations are supposed to show the industry’s maturity in Japan and attract institutional players, to some custodians and wallet service providers they appear to be regulatory overkill due to high compliance costs.
For example, on March 31, a blockchain-based social networking service called Valu announced that it would end its service due to strict regulations for digital-asset custodians. Valu enabled users to trade their “value as individuals” by using cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC). Therefore, it was managing users’ funds on their behalf. Valu commented: “As the crypto custody service is the core part of VALU, if we can’t maintain it, we have to change the management plan drastically.”
The new regulations affect crypto exchanges based outside of Japan. In April, BitMex, one of the world’s biggest crypto derivatives exchanges, announced that it would close services for Japanese residents starting May 1. BitMex — at the time headed by Arthur Hayes, its charismatic former CEO — was one of the most popular exchanges for Japanese traders. Now, traders are turning to other derivatives exchanges such as FTX and Bybit.
In October, Binance, another exchange not registered with the Financial Services Agency, ended its strategic partnership with TaoTao, a registered exchange in Japan.
Industry reorganization in 2021？
Meanwhile, industry reorganization is becoming one of the crypto hot topics in Japan. There are more than 25 exchanges registered with the FSA. For some companies, struggling businesses are attractive takeover targets. Tsuneyasu Takeda, CEO of Exchangers — which aims to become the Amazon of the crypto industry — told Cointelegraph Japan that he was negotiating with some of the licensed crypto exchanges for potential partnerships or mergers and acquisitions.
Moreover, global crypto exchanges are entering the Japanese market. Kraken reentered Japan in September for the first time since 2018, and Coinbase is actively recruiting locals. With global crypto exchange giants coming into an already competitive market, the selection process may be further intensified in 2021.
Is Ripple coming to Japan?
Despite their strictness, the clarity of Japan’s crypto laws appears to be an attractive element for some companies outside of the nation. Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, mentioned Japan as one of the candidates for relocating Ripple’s headquarters.
Garlinghouse criticized the lack of regulatory clarity in the U.S., saying there are too many definitions of cryptocurrency:
“Crypto is property, crypto is a commodity, crypto is a virtual currency, crypto is a security, etc. Regulation shouldn’t be a guessing game.”
He further summarized the reason that the company is considering moving outside the United States:
“The lack of a single national regulatory framework is putting US innovation and US companies at a significant disadvantage. All we’re asking for is a level playing field — if we need to move to another country to get that, then that’s the path we will have to take.”
Lack of new service
When the crypto industry saw the decentralized finance boom in the summer, Japan was left behind. There were no crypto exchanges in Japan that launched DeFi-related services nor that listed DeFi tokens in 2020.
It is not just DeFi — Japanese crypto exchanges struggled with expanding their services in general, with just Coincheck launching a staking service with Lisk in January. Many exchanges started listing new coins in 2020, such as Basic Attention Token (BAT), but the choices are still limited. “I feel like the Japanese crypto exchanges have done nothing for the past few years,” a Japanese crypto lawyer told Cointelegraph Japan.
As Bitcoin broke through its previous all-time high in November, Japanese retail investors gradually started returning to the market. Japanese retail investors are known for being the driving force behind the crypto bubble in 2017. Around the time, Japanese crypto exchanges aggressively advertised themselves on national television commercials.
For example, Coincheck collaborated with Tetsuro Degawa, a popular Japanese comedian, on a commercial to reach those who were unfamiliar with cryptocurrencies. The commercial went viral, and those who started trading Bitcoin after watching it were called Degawa-gumi, or “the Degawa group.” Moreover, Kasoutsuka Shojo, a crypto-themed idol group whose name translates to “Virtual Currency Girsl,” was formed in January 2018. The level of enthusiasm was at its peak.
The bull market of 2020 hasn’t seen as much enthusiasm from the Japanese as in the previous one, yet crypto exchanges revealed to Cointelegraph Japan that they were surely coming back to the market to some extent.
For example, crypto exchange Zaif said its customer service department had received many inquiries since October from users saying: “I tried to log in for the first time for a while but don’t remember my password.” According to Bitbank, the number of customers who opened new accounts quadrupled from the beginning of November to the end of the month. BitFlyer saw its weekly number of newly opened accounts increase threefold in the third week of November compared with the average of September to the middle of October.
Unlike the United States, the Japanese crypto market isn’t yet seeing the inflow of institutional players. It will eventually be seen in 2021 if the maturity of the crypto industry will start finally attracting them.
Crypto taxes, reporting and tax audits in 2021
The IRS appears to believe that millions of crypto transactions might still be unreported, and it wants to fix this, so be careful out there.
This year was like no other. Now that it has limped to a close and we look at the promise of a better 2021, it is time to think about taxes. Although there were many other notable things about 2020, there were some tax points to savor — and some to fear.
Gains and losses
It is hard to look at crypto and 2020 without commenting on gains and losses. Bitcoin (BTC) ballooned in price, making a lot of investors happy. Of course, if you had taken short positions, you are less content. And if you were invested in XRP, the news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is unhappy with XRP has caused some price impact in the unwanted direction. When it comes to real and perceived value and buying power, these developments matter. But what about taxes?
Tax day delay: IRS more lenient?
Tax returns for 2020 are due on April 15, 2021, which is not too far away. Don’t count on a delay like last year. In 2020, the Internal Revenue Service gave us all a 90-day reprieve on return filing and payments, until July 15, 2020 (IRS Notice 2020-17). The world may still be in COVID-19’s grip during the upcoming tax-filing season, but most observers do not expect the same kind of latitude from the IRS when it comes to 2020 tax returns.
The same can be said for the IRS easing up on many of its enforcement activities. Early in 2020, the IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig announced the “People First Initiative.” Need to pay your taxes in installments? The IRS will help because it has a well-worn process for working out installment payments. Plus, installment payments due between April 1 and July 15, 2020, were suspended, as were tax liens and levies. Even new passport debt certifications when delinquent tax debts exceed $50,000 were on hold, and most new tax audits were on hold, too.
How about now in early 2021? Many IRS employees are still working mostly remotely, but don’t assume that this means you are going to be cut some slack in early or mid-2021 that taxpayers received in 2020. It is highly unlikely. How about arguing with the IRS or in court that you shouldn’t have to pay IRS penalties because you were adversely impacted by the pandemic? You can try it, but the IRS commissioner has already pushed back hard on suggestions that the IRS should have a special pandemic allowance for penalties. Again, don’t count on it.
IRS forms for crypto taxes
Two years ago, the IRS made crypto a kind of everyman’s tax issue by adding a question to everyone’s tax return, and the same thing has happened with 2020 tax returns. It means that starting with 2019 tax returns filed in 2020, the IRS asks you a simple question:
“At any time during 2019, did you receive, sell, send, exchange or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?”
It’s pretty simple: just yes or no; it does not ask for numbers or details, though that would go elsewhere on your tax return.
This addition for 2019 returns is being continued for the 2020 returns you file in 2021. In fact, you should assume it will be a standard feature of tax returns from now on. Because the IRS classifies crypto as property, any sale is going to produce either a gain or loss, and a yes or no box can turn out to be pretty important. In fact, given the IRS’ track record with offshore bank accounts, it could even mean big penalties or even jail.
The Department of Justice’s Tax Division has successfully argued that the mere failure to check a box related to foreign account reporting is willfulness. Willful failures carry higher penalties and an increased threat of criminal investigation. The IRS’ Criminal Investigation Division is even meeting with tax authorities from other countries to share data and enforcement strategies to find potential cryptocurrency tax evasion. This seems reminiscent of the foreign bank account question included on Schedule B.
If a taxpayer answers “No” and then is discovered to have engaged in transactions with cryptocurrency during the year, the fact that they explicitly answered No to this new question (under penalties of perjury) could be used against them. What if you just have a kind of “signature authority” over crypto owned by your non-computer-savvy parents or other relatives? That way, you can help them manage their crypto.
If you sell a parent’s crypto on their behalf, at their request and/or for their benefit, should you answer “Yes” or “No” to the question? Various escrow and trust arrangements — some informal, some not — have blossomed. They can be sensitive, particularly now with the IRS’ much greater access to information. But be careful of who is selling and how such activities are reported.
Should you attach an explanatory statement to the return explaining your relationship to the digital currency? There probably aren’t perfect answers to this question, but what is clear is that answering “No” if the truth is “Yes” is a big mistake. Skipping the boxes entirely might not be as bad, but it isn’t good either if the truth is “Yes.” If the truth is “Yes,” say so, and remember to disclose and report your income, gains, losses, etc. Maybe that’s the point of the question: to be a prominent reminder.
Other tax forms
Don’t think that your tax return is the only tax form you’ll see. Although crypto still escapes some reporting forms, that is much less true today than it once was. How about IRS Forms 1099-MISC, 1099-K, 1099-B or Schedule K-1? There’s even the new Form 1099-NEC for the 2020 tax return season.
All of these forms can and do report crypto payments and transactions. These forms arrive around the end of January for reporting payments or transactions made in the previous calendar tax year. Wages paid to employees in digital currency must be reported on a Form W-2 and are subject to federal income tax withholding and payroll taxes.
Salaries made in digital currencies made to independent contractors are taxable to them, and payers engaged in business must issue Form 1099-NEC. A payment made using a digital currency is subject to Form 1099 reporting just like any other payment made in property. That means if a person in business pays crypto worth $600 or more to an independent contractor for services, a Form 1099 is required.
If you receive any Forms 1099, keep track of them. Each one gets reported to the IRS (and state tax authorities). If you don’t report or otherwise address the reported income on your tax return, you can expect the IRS to follow up.
Transactions trigger taxes
In 2014, the IRS announced that crypto is property. If you have 100 BTC and you sell 10, which 10 did you sell? There is no perfect answer to this question. Most of the tax law considers shares of stock, not cryptocurrency. Specific identification of what you are selling, when you bought it, and for what purchase price is likely to be the cleanest. But that may not be possible. Some people use an averaging convention, where you essentially average your cost across a number of purchases. Consistency and record-keeping are important.
IRS audits and information access
The IRS uses software to track crypto and has also gotten access to records via other sources. Besides, with the forms 1099 and K-1 being issued, many reports are now being dropped in the IRS’ lap. That should be a cause for concern for taxpayers.
The IRS has crypto training now for its auditors and criminal investigation division agents. Should the latter scare you? I think so. The IRS and Department of Justice still bring criminal charges primarily involving crypto use for illegal purposes involving other crimes, such as money laundering or child pornography. But that is no guarantee.
Besides, most criminal tax cases historically come out of regular old civil IRS audits. The IRS auditor sees something it thinks is fishy and invites the criminals to the IRS to take a look. It’s called a referral, and you don’t know if it is happening. In fact, you usually don’t know until it is too late. If you forget to report your crypto gains in past years, then you ought to reconsider this. Don’t wait for the IRS to find you even if you did not get one of those 10,000 IRS crypto warning letters.
Taxpayers may think they will not be caught, but the risks are growing — and the best way to avoid penalties is to disclose and report as accurately as you can. IRS commissioner Chuck Rettig has even moved to increase criminal investigations, too, so be careful out there.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.
Robert W. Wood is a tax lawyer representing clients worldwide from the office of Wood LLP in San Francisco, where he is a managing partner. He is the author of numerous tax books and writes frequently about taxes for Forbes, Tax Notes and other publications.
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