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An equity chief studied 100 years of market history to pinpoint the stock-market level that would confirm a bubble is underway – and potentially mark the beginning of the next meltdown

Barry Bannister is flagging what happens if and when the S&P 500 rises to 3,900. AP The stock market is approaching a ‘pivotal level’ that…

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trader black monday 1987Barry Bannister is flagging what happens if and when the S&P 500 rises to 3,900.

AP

  • The stock market is approaching a “pivotal level” that would confirm a bubble or serve as a major top, says Barry Bannister, the head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel.
  • He pinpoints the level on the S&P 500 as 3,800, based on his study of stock-market valuations since 1920.
  • He focuses specifically on the so-called CAPE ratio, which was only as high as it is now in the late 1920s and early 2000s.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

There is no question that the stock market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

This piece of market wisdom is often used to advice investors against fighting uptrends and selling out too quickly when conditions appear to be frothy.

But for Barry Bannister, the head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel, the least any investor can do is admit that the market is indeed irrational. He has done the math for them and identified a level on the S&P 500 that would confirm a bubble, based on his analysis of how expensive market environments resolved themselves over the last 100 years.

The good news is that we’re not there yet. However, Bannister’s cautious outlook comes at a time when chief strategists at other firms are releasing high expectations – and S&P 500 price targets – for 2021. Goldman Sachs is gearing up for a “roaring ’20s redux” per the title of the firm’s 2021 equities outlook note. And Jefferies in November forecast a 7% rally for the S&P 500 in 2021 before hiking its target within a month.

To be sure, Bannister is not expecting an imminent crash. His S&P 500 target of 3,800 represents a 4% increase from current levels – and he is open to revising it if the breakout in value stocks proves to be persistent.

He is flagging what may happen if and when the index exceeds his price target and rises to 3,900. His concern is anchored on the last 100 years of the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, a valuation gauge that accounts for inflation and compares the S&P 500’s price to its ten-year average of earnings.

Bannister found that a trend line of the CAPE which is consistent with the S&P 500 at 3,900 coincides with two previous market bubbles (in the late 1920s and late 1990s) and two market tops (in 1936 and 1966).

Based on these precedents, he says the market is approaching a “pivotal level” that would confirm a bubble if it keeps rising, or would mark the top if it falls.

Screen Shot 2020 12 11 at 12.14.43 PM

Stifel

Bannister may not be the most bullish strategist out there – but that does not mean he ignores the catalysts that have supported US stocks this year despite the pandemic.

He even takes a step back to account for the market’s success over the past century: since the end of World War I, the US has enjoyed unparalleled freedom and global hegemony that has facilitated risk-taking and attracted talented immigrants. This fertile ground produced the world’s first trillion-dollar company and countless more profit-generating business empires.

These conditions won’t go away overnight, and stocks may command more surprising valuations.

Additionally, the creator of the CAPE ratio, Nobel-winning professor Robert Shiller, says valuations are not as irrational as his invention suggests. He concluded in a recent column for Project Syndicate that stocks continue to look attractive, particularly relative to bonds, because interest rates are so low.

That said, Bannister reminds readers that a high CAPE has historically signaled lower returns in the years that followed – and he is expecting the same during the 2020-2030 decade. The ratio is now at 33; the two other times it was above 30 were in the late 1920s and early 2000s, right before major market calamities.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/next-stock-market-crash-2021-outlook-bannister-warns-of-bubble-2020-12-1029887664

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SES Government Solutions Provides Medium Earth Orbit Satellite Services for Combatant Command

SES Government Solutions, a wholly-owned subsidiary of SES, in close partnership with a key U.S. Government customer, designed, developed and f…

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SES Government Solutions, a wholly-owned subsidiary of SES, in close partnership with a key U.S. Government customer, designed, developed and fielded an O3b Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) reachback capability to provide mission-critical communications for a key combatant command. The awarded task order for USD 11.8 million is against the single-award USD 516.7 million Blanket Purchase Agreement (BPA) for medium earth orbit (MEO) low-latency high-throughput satellite (HTS) services. This is the 15th task order awarded to SES GS on this BPA.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210516005061/en/

SES Government Solutions Provides Medium Earth Orbit Satellite Services for Combatant Command (Photo: Business Wire)

SES Government Solutions Provides Medium Earth Orbit Satellite Services for Combatant Command (Photo: Business Wire)

With this agreement, SES Government Solutions expands its high-throughput, low-latency services in support of mission-essential combatant command requirements, as the customer needs evolve, by providing innovative, flexible and secure communications solutions.

Using O3b services, U.S. Government customers can take advantage of the field-proven capabilities to support the provisioning of enterprise services to deployed warfighters. The solution leverages the MEO constellation by providing fiber-like connectivity to austere deployed locations.

“The Department of Defense has vast and expansive information at their fingertips,” said President and CEO of SES Government Solutions, Brigadier General Pete Hoene, USAF (retired). “Utilizing reachback technology gives our warfighters the information and support needed for mission success. By leveraging the O3b MEO constellation, deployed U.S. military personnel have access to near real-time decision-making intelligence at the tactical edge.”

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About SES Government Solutions

SES Government Solutions (SES GS) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of SES, the leader in global content connectivity solutions. SES GS operates under a proxy board allowing them to provide services through contracts with the U.S. Government, including classified work. SES GS is exclusively focused on meeting the satellite communications needs of the U.S. Government. Leveraging more than four decades of experience in the government SATCOM market, SES GS offers robust and secure end-to-end satellite communications solutions. Further information can be found at www.ses-gs.com.

About SES

SES has a bold vision to deliver amazing experiences everywhere on earth by distributing the highest quality video content and providing seamless connectivity around the world. As the leader in global content connectivity solutions, SES operates the world’s only multi-orbit constellation of satellites with the unique combination of global coverage and high performance, including the commercially-proven, low-latency Medium Earth Orbit O3b system. By leveraging a vast and intelligent, cloud-enabled network, SES is able to deliver high-quality connectivity solutions anywhere on land, at sea or in the air, and is a trusted partner to the world’s leading telecommunications companies, mobile network operators, governments, connectivity and cloud service providers, broadcasters, video platform operators and content owners. SES’s video network carries over 8,200 channels and has an unparalleled reach of 361 million households, delivering managed media services for both linear and non-linear content. The company is listed on Paris and Luxembourg stock exchanges (Ticker: SESG). Further information is available at: www.ses.com.

Markets Insider and Business Insider Editorial Teams were not involved in the creation of this post.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ses-government-solutions-provides-medium-earth-orbit-satellite-services-for-combatant-command-1030435088

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A 29-year-old crypto billionaire who’s made millions from digital-currency arbitrage shares 2 tips for investors looking to get started in trading- and explains why ether is unlikely to surpass…

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX and Alameda Research. FTX Sam Bankman-Fried became a billionaire through leveraging a cryptocurrency arb…

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Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of FTX and Alameda ResearchSam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX and Alameda Research.

FTX

  • Sam Bankman-Fried became a billionaire through leveraging a cryptocurrency arbitrage strategy.
  • Bankman-Fried now runs a leading derivative cryptocurrency exchange, FTX.
  • He shares his tips for crypto trading and his outlook on bitcoin vs. ether.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Sam Bankman-Fried is a cofounder of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX and a legend in the world of crypto trading.

His crypto arbitrage strategy netted him 10% daily returns on million-dollar crypto trades, helping him to accumulate a net worth that placed him on Forbes’ list of cryptocurrency billionaires at just 29 years old.

Although Bankman-Fried’s wealth provides him with more than enough money to retire comfortably on a faraway island, he instead dedicates his time to building the ultimate cryptocurrency exchange for traders.

His goal is to create an alternative to the “s—show exchanges” that existed when he was trading in 2017 and 2018, Bankman-Fried said in an interview with Insider.

“We thought the odds are pretty high that we would fail on the exchange because we thought we would just never get any users and that would be that, but it seemed high enough upside that it was worth going for anyway,” Bankman-Fried said.

Within two years, FTX went from relatively unknown to one of the top five derivative-trading exchanges, with more than $400 billion in monthly trading volume in April.

FTX changed the trading game by enabling the management of collateral through a single wallet. This meant traders could trade anything on FTX through one margin wallet, as long as they had enough collateral to meet their total position size.

“It’s one of the rare times that you find a change, which both simplifies the product and makes it more powerful,” Bankman-Fried said.

Some might assume that, by simplifying the collateralization process, FTX would face more risk when it comes to liquidations, a process that occurs when traders don’t have enough collateral to support their position.

Yet when a recent flash crash caused a 17% drop in the value of bitcoin and liquidations worth $9.3 billion on April 17, FTX fared better than most.

The platform is designed to discourage mass liquidations by limiting the size of the positions traders can put on with really high leverage and having an engine that liquidates only as much as it needs to, Bankman-Fried said.

Total liquidations graph from ByBtTotal liquidations graph from ByBt.

ByBt

Crypto trading tips

There is fierce competition from other traders in the cryptocurrency market, and breaking in is hard, Bankman-Fried said. “It’s not a super forgiving place to try and get into,” he said.

First, get to know the market by learning from the experts. Bankman-Fried spent several years learning his craft at the trading firm Jane Street.

Second, try to figure out what edge you have, such as great technology or a good instinct for the direction of the market, he said.

“I think one of the interesting things is the blurring line between trader and an investor in crypto,” Bankman-Fried said.

Bankman-Fried’s approach to trading is evolving. He has formed an appreciation for how great crypto investors have been able to operate in different market environments and is spending more time thinking about strategies that set him up well for future cycles, something he said he didn’t have great instincts for previously.

“Often, a lot of the upside is in the cases where the bull market stays. That’s where you should be focusing a lot of your thoughts because that’s where it matters the most what you do,” Bankman-Fried said. “But with the caveat that you have to make sure that you don’t f— yourself over if there’s a temporary bear market, that you don’t put yourself in a position where you can’t survive that.”

Bitcoin vs. ether

The most-traded cryptocurrency is bitcoin, which has a market capitalization near $1 trillion. In recent weeks, the Ethereum blockchain’s native currency, ether, has arguably made its case as a challenger to bitcoin, as the currency has surged more than 100% in price since the start of April with a market capitalization of $450 billion.

Bitcoin’s 93% gain so far this year has been dwarfed by ether’s 450% increase in that time. The Ethereum network houses a variety of decentralized finance applications, including nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, which have been all the rage among artists and celebrities. The multiple uses of the network, plus the fact that its carbon footprint is considerably smaller than that of bitcoin, have burnished ether’s popularity.

Bankman-Fried said he would be surprised to see ether overtake bitcoin, considering bitcoin has the massive advantage of being the first and agreed-upon default cryptocurrency, which is worth a lot.

For all its diverse uses, Ethereum has its own issues, such as serious scaling challenges, which are going to hold it back, Bankman-Fried said.

“It’s hard for me to see ether displacing bitcoin, although I could be wrong there,” he said.

Sam Bankman-Fried is a cofounder of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX and a legend in the world of crypto trading.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/crypto-trading-tips-ethereum-outlook-young-billionaire-sam-bankman-fried-2021-5-1030415441

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Dogecoin plummets during Elon Musk’s ‘Saturday Night Live’ hosting gig as Robinhood experiences issues

Miley Cyrus was the musical guest on "SNL," while Elon Musk hosted. NBC/Getty Images The value of the cryptocurrency Dogecoin fell dur…

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Miley Cyrus Elon Musk SNLMiley Cyrus was the musical guest on “SNL,” while Elon Musk hosted.

NBC/Getty Images

  • The value of the cryptocurrency Dogecoin fell during Elon Musk’s episode of “Saturday Night Live.”
  • At the same time, Robinhood tweeted that its app was experiencing difficulties with trading.
  • Robinhood declined to comment on whether the difficulty was due to changes in trading during “SNL.”
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Dogecoin’s stock price fell during billionaire Elon Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live” on May 9.

The cryptocurrency, which started as a joke in 2013 but recently gained popularity with Musk’s vocal support, fell to about $0.5 around 12:30 a.m. early Sunday morning, according to Coindesk, but the price steadily picked up as the show went on.

Musk touted Dogecoin during his appearance on the show’s “Weekend Update” sketch, saying the cryptocurrency would “take over the world” and calling himself the “Dogefather.”

At the same time, Robinhood, the multi-billion dollar stock trading app, said the platform was experiencing issues with crypto-trading.

“Update: We’re currently experiencing issues with crypto trading,” Robinhood tweeted during Musk’s performance. “We’re working to resolve this as soon as possible.”

-Robinhood Help (@AskRobinhood) May 9, 2021

Robinhood told Insider that the platform’s crypto-trading was “back up and running” about 30 minutes after it first reported difficulties. Robinhood declined to comment on whether the issues were tied to the “SNL” performance.

-Robinhood Help (@AskRobinhood) May 9, 2021

Dogecoin was originated in 2013 by IBM software engineer Billy Markus and Adobe software engineer Jackson Palmer.

This year, Dogecoin has had more than a 12,000% year-to-date rally, and spiked the week prior to Musk’s hosting gig on “Saturday Night Live.” The Reddit group Wall Street Bets, which cheered an unlikely rally of GameStop stock earlier this year, has also championed Dogecoin.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/dogecoin-drop-robinhood-down-elon-musk-snl-episode-2021-5-1030405331

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